A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
