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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.