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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd